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Analyzing the truthfulness of corporate executives

The website RealScoop uses voice analysis to analyze statements made by corporate executives (or others), with the result shown on the “Believability Meter”. How cool is this? (UPDATE: Likely all a fraud and/or complete coincidence as voice analysis is unreliable. See comments below.)

The recently posted some video of Alan Schwartz, CEO of Bear Stearns, talking about liquidity problems at the firm just a couple of days before the firm imploded. The more questionable the statements of the person, the more red you see on the meter…

And here’s what the site had to say about Schwartz’s statements:

We had the Believability Meter analyze the key statements in this interview. The conversation covers rumors that other Wall Street firms will not cover new counter party risk of Bear Sterns but Schwartz denies this and claims it is nothing more than “administrative pressure.” He states Bear Sterns is not being made aware of anyone on Wall Street who has concern about the firm and speculates on why this rumor started. The rubber meets the road at the end of the clip when he states that Bear Sterns’ balance sheet has not weakened and they reported a “$17 billion of cash sitting at the parent company.” Well, then there is nothing to worry about then, right?

He was obviously downplaying the rumors/claims, as the company fell apart with in a couple of days.

You might also want to check out the Slick Willie audio that they have. Of course, when Bill Clinton denies having “sex with that woman” the meter goes crazy. Although it’s interesting to note that when he paused before her name (that was rehearsed) the meter went back to believable. Hmmm…

Hat tip to Timothy Sykes.

4 Comments »

  Michael Goode wrote @ April 21st, 2008 at 10:19 am

Realscoop is likely a complete fraud. The one problem with voice analysis technology is that it doesn’t work at all–it is 100% completely useless. Even lie detectors, which require that a person be hooked up directly to the machine, are less effective than most people believe.

While in graduate school I met Mitch Sommers, who is a bit of an expert in the area of voice-stress lie detection. Here is what he said regarding an expensive and widely used (by police departments) in-person voice stress analyzer: “In our evaluation, voice-stress analysis detected some instances of deception, but its ability to do so was consistently less than chance — you could have gotten better results by flipping a coin.”

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/02/040211080041.htm

  Michael Goode wrote @ April 21st, 2008 at 10:22 am

Considering that the system that Sommers tested involved using highly sensitive microphones in controlled interviews, while the Realscoop technology makes do with whatever is shown on TV, I would conclude with 99.99% certainty that Realscoop is a useless fraud.

Here’s a link to Prof. Mitch Sommer’s website:
http://www.psych.wustl.edu/sommers/vbca.html

  Tracy Coenen wrote @ April 21st, 2008 at 10:29 am

Gahhhh… Michael you ruined all my fun. Pooh. :(

  Michael Goode wrote @ April 21st, 2008 at 11:03 am

You’re welcome Tracy. It’s what I do. :)

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